Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

January

29 July 2021 Strong Pushback from the MPC's Doves Suggests QE will Roll on

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years... ...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2021 Brexit is Limiting Trade and will be a Key Constraint on the Recovery

On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably... ...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 July 2021 The Peak for Covid-19 Cases is Within Sight

Growth in new Covid-19 cases has eased in recent days, bringing hope that infections will top out well below the 100K-a-day level forewarned by the new Health Secretary...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report--released during our summer break--likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 July 2021 Will Inventory Replenishment Turbocharge the Recovery?

Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We're sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April's GDP report. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 June 2021 A Blockbuster Labour Market Report for April?

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that the unemployment rate fell further in April, though not quite as rapidly as implied by recent business surveys.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 June 2021 GDP Likely Jumped to Within 4% of its Pre-Covid Level in April

We expect April's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that the economy continued to recover at a rapid rate in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 June 2021 Is Still-High Furlough Scheme Usage a Cause for Concern?

MPC members have made it clear that the evolution of slack in the labour market will have a crucial bearing on the timing of the first increase in Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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