UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, May 2024

• In one line: On track for a June rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, March 2024

• In one line:Lower borrowing costs sparked a wave of refinancing in Q1, which likely will unwind in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, April 2024

• In one line: Manufacturing almost stabilised but input cost inflation jumped.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April & Q2

• In one line: Output prices likely rising more slowly than the CBI’s survey implies.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

April 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

A SMALL WOBBLE AS MORTGAGE-RATE DROP PAUSES...

• ...BUT PRICES WILL STILL RISE 4% IN 2024

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, March 2024

• In one line: Almost back to growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, February 2024

• In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, March 2024

• In one line: MPC gears up for a summer rate cut with tweaks to guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, January 2024

• In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.

Samuel TombsUK

February 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

PRICES HAVE TURNED A CORNER; EXPECT A 5% RISE IN 2024...

• ...AS REAL INCOMES RISE & MORTGAGE RATES EDGE LOWER

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Strengthening recovery will allow the MPC to take its time. 

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Optimism improving as lower borrowing costs start to underpin demand.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Supply chain disruptions threaten to compound the demand-driven downturn in output.  

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, December 2023

• In one line: Households won’t stay this cautious for long.

Samuel TombsUK

January 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

PRICES HAVE NEARLY STABILISED; EXPECT A 5% RISE IN 2024...

• ...AS REAL INCOMES RISE & MORTGAGE RATES KEEP FALLING

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, December 2023

• In one line: Downturn in manufacturing output has further to run. 

UK

December 2023 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICE NADIR IS JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AWAY...

• ...FALLING MORTGAGE RATES WILL LEAD TO A 5% RISE IN 2024

Samuel TombsUK