Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Greece Banks

21 June 2022 Will Sterling Force the MPC to Stick to a Path of Rapid Rate Hikes?

OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.

The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.

Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Feb 2022 Mortgage Rates will Rise Further, Slowing the Housing Market

  • The average rate for a two-year fixed rate mortgage, with a 75% LTV ratio, likely will leap to 2.1%, from 1.6%.
  • This increase won't be a problem for most refinancers, but it will impact affordability for new homebuyers.
  • Next week's labour market data will show Q4's small drop in employment is on course to be reversed in Q1.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

9 Feb 2022 Will Households Spend More this Year, Despite Falling Real Incomes?

  • Real household disposable income looks set to drop by nearly 2% this year, the most since 1977...
  • ...But consumers can draw on the savings they amassed during the pandemic and borrow more.
  • We expect the saving ratio to fall to 4.5% in 2022—1.5pp below its pre-Covid level—so that spending rises further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Feb 2022 Money Supply Data Suggest the Economy Won't Overheat This Year

  • Growth in the broad money supply reverted to its pre-Covid rate in Q4, despite very low interest rates.
  • Households dipped into their excess savings in December to maintain their spending, not increase it.
  • Mortgage refinancing will cease to boost disposable incomes in 2022; the effective rate will stabilise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Feb 2022 The Trade Deficit Will Widen this Year, Increasing Sterling's Vulnerability

  • The overall trade deficit will more than double in 2022, as the value of natural gas imports surges...
  • ...And the structural deficit in travel and transportation services gradually re-emerges.
  • Financial inflows will pick up too, supporting sterling, but another risk-off episode would hurt the pound.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Jan 2022 The MPC won't Match the U.S. Fed's Rate Hiking Pace This Year

  • Investors expect U.K. official rates to rise by 98bp this year, exceeding the 86bp anticipated rise in the U.S.
  • U.K. households, however, are less well-placed than those in the U.S. to withstand higher rates.
  • The MPC will switch to QT before the Fed, while membership  changes will strengthen the doves' hands.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Jan 2022 Lower Saving Reflects Inflation Pressure, not Reviving Confidence

  • The return of monthly saving to pre-Covid levels is a sign of the real income squeeze, not surging spending.
  • The recent surge in house prices, however, is enabling refinancing homeowners to access lower interest rates.
  • Firms continued to repay external borrowing in November, but we remain upbeat on the capex outlook.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence