Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Fed

6 Sept 2021 Forecast Review: The Consensus is Still too Upbeat on Q3 GDP

  • From now on, the U.K. Monitor on the first Monday of each month will summarise recent forecast changes.
  • We now think GDP flatlined in July, so our Q3 fore- cast, 1.5% q/q, is well below the consensus, 2.4%.
  • Our 3.7% forecast for the CPI inflation in Q4—probably the peak—is below the MPC's new 4.0% estimate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Aug 2021 Employment Growth Likely Topped the Consensus in June

We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.

June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.

Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 June 2021 A Copycat Hawkish Surprise from the BoE this week

The hawkish surprise last week from the U.S. Fed has left many investors questioning whether the MPC will follow suit this Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence