Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

February

15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Aug 2021 Employment Growth Likely Topped the Consensus in June

We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.

June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.

Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.

The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.

Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 June 2021 The First Rate Hike Still Looks Distant, after June's MPC Minutes

Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 June 2021 Scottish House Price Data Provide a Glimpse of Life after the SDLT Holiday

April's official house price data show how strongly the market has been influenced by the temporary increase in the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax to £500K, from £125K.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 May 2021 The Economy Still is Convalescing, No Sign of a Consumer Boom

Near-real-time indicators suggest that the recovery in consumers' spending has lost some momentum.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 May 2021 What will Follow Households' Summer Spending Spree?

Financial markets are relatively upbeat on the outlook for British retailers. The FTSE All-Share Retailers Index closed last week 27% above its 2019 average, greatly outperforming the total FTSE All- Share Index, which has only just recovered to its 2019 level.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 May 2021 Recovery Update: Now We're Sucking Diesel

Incoming data remain consistent with our above-consensus forecast that GDP will leap by about 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2021 April CPI Inflation to Exceed the Consensus

April's consumer prices figures will be closely watched by markets on Wednesday for signs that prices are surging as businesses reopen, especially in light of the big jump in U.S. CPI inflation reported last week.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 May 2021 The MPC's New Forecasts Signal that Rate Expectations are too High

The MPC made it clear on Thursday that it will not be bounced into raising Bank Rate by the forthcoming period of above-target inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Apr 2021 The MPC Likely will Wait Another Month to Taper its Gilt Purchases

The key question for investors next week is whether the MPC will immediately taper its purchases of government bonds.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Apr 2021 Flat Food Prices will Help to Restrain the Headline Inflation Rate

The 0.7% CPI inflation rate in March printed below the consensus, 0.8%, when the data were published last week, primarily due to a sharp fall in food CPI inflation to -1.4%, from -0.6% in February.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Apr 2021 Why is the RPI-CPI Gap So Small When House Prices are Surging?

One of the current puzzles in the U.K. data is that March's RPI inflation rate, 1.5%, was only 0.8 percentage points above the rate of CPI inflation, even though the housing market is glowing hot.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Apr 2021 The Recovery is Breaking into Its Stride, But No Dissaving Boom Yet

The glut of economic data released at the end of last week left us feeling more confident in our above-consensus forecast that GDP will rise by about 5% in Q2, following Q1's relatively modest 1.5% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

US Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, February 2021

In one line: The unemployment rate will be even lower by the summer.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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