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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.
June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.
Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.
The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.
The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.
Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June
The latest activity surveys are a mixed bag.
Financial markets are relatively upbeat on the outlook for British retailers. The FTSE All-Share Retailers Index closed last week 27% above its 2019 average, greatly outperforming the total FTSE All- Share Index, which has only just recovered to its 2019 level.
April's consumer prices figures will be closely watched by markets on Wednesday for signs that prices are surging as businesses reopen, especially in light of the big jump in U.S. CPI inflation reported last week.
The glut of economic data released at the end of last week left us feeling more confident in our above-consensus forecast that GDP will rise by about 5% in Q2, following Q1's relatively modest 1.5% decline.
In one line: The unemployment rate will be even lower by the summer.
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