Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

February

13 May 2022 Brisk Quarterly GDP Growth Masks a Slowdown during Q1

Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.

Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.

Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, February/March 2022

  • In one line: The recovery in employment is back on track.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, February 2022

  • In one line: Growth to remain weak for several months, as healthcare activities drop and real incomes are squeezed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, February 2022

  • In one line: Sluggish money growth and continued reticence to spend savings point to a slowing recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Mar 2022 Does the Plunge in Confidence Signal an Imminent Recession?

  • A recession has ensued on four of the five past times when consumers' confidence is as low as it is currently.
  • The outlook for households' real disposable income is ghastly; we now expect a 2.5% y/y drop in 2022...
  • ...But if employment keeps rising, people should be will- ing to draw on savings to maintain their real spending.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, February 2022

  • In one line: Recession-level confidence bodes ill for retailers.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2022

  • In one line:  Rising slightly faster than the MPC expected, maintaining the near-term pressure for higher interest rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February 2022

  • In one line: Borrowing no longer undershooting the OBR’s expectations, due to surging debt interest payments.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January/February 2022

  • In one line: Still tightening, despite the small drop in employment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February 2022

  • In one line: Strong for now, but higher mortgage rates and falling real incomes look set to bite.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Mar 2022 February CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded 6%, on Course to Easily Top 8% Soon

  • We think CPI inflation rose to 6.1% in February, from 5.5% in January, above the MPC's 5.9% forecast.
  • Eurozone data signal a further sharp increase in core goods inflation; food inflation likely rose too.
  • Surveys point to a further large month-to-month increase in services prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February 2022

  • In one line: Car sales weaken as consumers’ confidence falls. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2022

  • In one line: Recovery strengthening, assisted by high business confidence and easing supply constraints.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Feb 2022 Labour Supply will Pick Up This Year, Keeping Wage Pressures in Check

  • We think that year-over-year growth in the workforce will pick up to 1.0% by the end of 2022...
  • ...Driven by the reversal of half of the rise in inactivity since early 2020, and a recovery in immigration.
  • The number of hours workers are willing to supply also will rise in response to the drop in real wages.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February 2022

  • In one line: Bouncing back from the Omicron hit. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, February

  • In one line: Hiking as expected, but pushing back against expectations of substantial tightening ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence