Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ECBEquities Credit

1 Oct 2021 2022 Rate Hike Now Likely, Following Big GDP Revisions

  • The shortfall in GDP in July from its pre-Covid peak has been revised to just 1.3%, from 2.5% previously.
  • Future growth, however, will be weak; both government spending and households' incomes will fall...
  • ...So the MPC can take its time; we now expect a Q2 rate rise, but then a 12-month delay until the next hike.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Sept 2021 Consumers are Missing in Action, will they Finally Stop Saving in Q4

  • Households continued to add to their stock of savings at a faster rate in August than before Covid.
  • Unsecured lending rose only modestly too; lower confi- dence in September points to still-subdued spending.
  • Surging energy prices mean we are lifting our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, from 3.2% two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, August 2021

  • In one line: Households still saving more than usual; psychology unlikely to improve in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Sept 2021 Survey Data Continue to Point to Sluggish GDP Growth in Q3

  • The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
  • Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
  • GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Sept 2021 Households will be Hurt by Q4's 1.5% Drop in Disposable Income

  • August's drop in retail sales was broad-based; the recovery in overall spending now is sluggish.
  • Real disposable income will drop by 1.5% q/q in Q4, as employment falls, inflation soars, and benefits are cut.
  • RHDI will recover in Q1, but then flatline in Q2, in response to the rise in employees' NICs rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, July 2021

  • In one line: Households remain stuck in a cautious mindset.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, June 2021

In one line: Households remain slightly cautious.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, May & Nationwide House Prices, June 2021

In one line: Households and firms haven’t shaken off their cautious mindset yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 June 2021 The First Rate Hike Still Looks Distant, after June's MPC Minutes

Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 June 2021 Scottish House Price Data Provide a Glimpse of Life after the SDLT Holiday

April's official house price data show how strongly the market has been influenced by the temporary increase in the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax to £500K, from £125K.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 June 2021 GDP Likely Jumped to Within 4% of its Pre-Covid Level in April

We expect April’s GDP report, released on Friday, to show that the economy continued to recover at a rapid rate in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, April 2021

In one line: Households saved the least since Covid began, but aren't confident enough yet to splurge.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 June 2021 Manufacturers Can't Ride the Restocking Wave Forever

The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 May 2021 The Economy Still is Convalescing, No Sign of a Consumer Boom

Near-real-time indicators suggest that the recovery in consumers' spending has lost some momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence