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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.
The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.
Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The BoE is considering active gilt sales that would result in a reduction in the APF of £50B-to-£100B in year one.
This implies active sales of £15B-to-£65B if they begin in Q4; we expect sales at the lower end of that range.
The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retailers’ stock levels are far too high; discounting will intensify.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
Rising energy prices likely accounted for 1.6 percentage points of May's 4.9% rate of services CPI inflation.
While the jump in the VAT rate for the hospitality and recreation sector likely has lifted it by a further 0.6pp.
Underlying services inflation, therefore, only just exceeds its 2.5% average rate in the second half of the 2010s.
OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.
The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.
Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.
Year-over-year growth in private-sector wages slowed to 4.7% in April, slightly below the MPC’s 4.8% forecast.
The job market no longer is tightening, as the workforce recovers and growth in employment starts to slow.
We still expect the workforce to recover further, anchoring wage growth and easing the pressure for rate hikes.
Monthly payments will jump by about £100 for most households who refinance mortgages this year.
Mortgage approvals will fall sharply in the second half of this year in response to higher rates.
But house prices likely will stabilise, not fall; the supply of homes coming to the market will contract too.
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