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Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence