Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

August

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August 2021

  • In one line: Drop should fuel doubts about how soon the MPC will hike interest rates.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2021

  • In one line: Used car prices to blame for the upside surprise; little near-term momentum in the rest of the core basket. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, July & August 2021

  • In one line: Not yet tight enough for strong underlying wage growth; slack to increase in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Sept 2021 Hidden Slack will Rise More than the Unemployment Rate, Post-Furlough

  • The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
  • ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Sept 2021 What Does the Latest Surge in Energy Prices Mean for CPI Inflation?

  • The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023.
  • Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't immediately impact the CPI...
  • ...Future prices still imply that Ofgem will lower slightly the default tariff cap next year, not raise it further.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2021

  • In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: No sign of shortages of raw materials or staff lessening yet.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, August 2021

  • In one line: Supply chain problems continue to limit the recovery.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

6 Sept 2021 Forecast Review: The Consensus is Still too Upbeat on Q3 GDP

  • From now on, the U.K. Monitor on the first Monday of each month will summarise recent forecast changes.
  • We now think GDP flatlined in July, so our Q3 fore- cast, 1.5% q/q, is well below the consensus, 2.4%.
  • Our 3.7% forecast for the CPI inflation in Q4—probably the peak—is below the MPC's new 4.0% estimate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: Consistent with other evidence pointing to much lower GDP growth in Q3.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Sept 2021 Why is the U.K.'s Recovery Still Lagging Behind the Eurozone's?

  • The U.K. economy was hit harder by the pandemic and has struggled to catch up to the Eurozone since.
  • Britain's faster rollout of vaccines led many to assume that it would close the gap with the Eurozone in Q3...
  • ...But near-real-time indicators imply Q3 GDP growth actually was stronger in the Eurozone than the U.K.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: Slowing growth in output attributable to both supply constraints and demand.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, August 2021

  • In one line: House price increase set to partially reverse in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Aug 2021 Renewed Consumer Caution Likely as Covid-19 Cases Rise Further

  • Covid-19 cases will rise at a faster rate in September, as schools return and vaccine efficacy fades.

  • The government is puzzlingly lukewarm on booster jabs; admissions will be much higher by October.
  • Renewed business closures are unlikely, but the re- covery's pause in July shows people still fear Covid

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Aug 2021 Labour Shortages will be a Long- Lasting Constraint on GDP

  • Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
  • Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
  • The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: Partial recovery in sales likely in August, but outlook further ahead is flat.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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