Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

August

17 Dec 2021 The MPC will Give the Economy Breathing Space Before Hiking Again

Markets now expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate to 0.50% in February, following today's surprise hike.

Most members, however, thought the decision was "finely balanced" and see a "modest" tightening ahead.

Omicron won't just have short-term effects if the MPC hikes again and pushes firms over the edge.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

14 Dec 2021 Sterling to Continue to Slide in 2022, Hurt by the U.K.'s Covid Sensitivity

Trade-weighted sterling has fallen by about 2% since late October; bets on a further drop have intensified.
The U.K. economy is more Covid sensitive than most; the downside risk to rate expectations is greater.
Investors next year increasingly will price-in the risks of a messy outcome to the next general election.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 Nov 2021 MPC Members are Keeping their Options Open, No Matter the Data

  • MPC members Bailey and Pill are sitting on the fence, despite last week's upside data surprises.
  • In a weekend paper interview, the Governor highlighted the public sector's role in driving the recovery.
  • We put the odds of a December rate hike at 60%, well below the 80-to-90% range priced by markets.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, August 2021

  • In one line: Brexit and Covid-19 still weighing on U.K. trade. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, August 2021

  • In one line: The recovery remains much more sluggish than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August/September 2021

  • In one line: Not strong enough for the MPC to hike rates in November, before it has assessed the post-furlough landscape. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, August 2021

  • In one line: Households still saving more than usual; psychology unlikely to improve in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, August 2021

  • In one line: The inflation outlook implies August won’t be the last month of high interest payments.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August 2021

  • In one line: Drop should fuel doubts about how soon the MPC will hike interest rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2021

  • In one line: Used car prices to blame for the upside surprise; little near-term momentum in the rest of the core basket. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, July & August 2021

  • In one line: Not yet tight enough for strong underlying wage growth; slack to increase in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Sept 2021 Hidden Slack will Rise More than the Unemployment Rate, Post-Furlough

  • The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
  • ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Sept 2021 What Does the Latest Surge in Energy Prices Mean for CPI Inflation?

  • The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023.
  • Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't immediately impact the CPI...
  • ...Future prices still imply that Ofgem will lower slightly the default tariff cap next year, not raise it further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2021

  • In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, August 2021

  • In one line: No sign of shortages of raw materials or staff lessening yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, August 2021

  • In one line: Supply chain problems continue to limit the recovery.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence