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Markets now expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate to 0.50% in February, following today's surprise hike.
Most members, however, thought the decision was "finely balanced" and see a "modest" tightening ahead.
Omicron won't just have short-term effects if the MPC hikes again and pushes firms over the edge.
November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...
...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.
We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.
Covid-19 cases will rise at a faster rate in September, as schools return and vaccine efficacy fades.
The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.
The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.
Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.
Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly.
Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.
In one line: Sticking to the script; high inflation still seen as transitory.
June’s Markit/CIPS PMIs suggest that the economic recovery still has plenty of momentum.
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