Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

April

9 Sept 2021 What Does the Latest Surge in Energy Prices Mean for CPI Inflation?

  • The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023.
  • Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't immediately impact the CPI...
  • ...Future prices still imply that Ofgem will lower slightly the default tariff cap next year, not raise it further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Aug 2021 Renewed Consumer Caution Likely as Covid-19 Cases Rise Further

  • Covid-19 cases will rise at a faster rate in September, as schools return and vaccine efficacy fades.

  • The government is puzzlingly lukewarm on booster jabs; admissions will be much higher by October.
  • Renewed business closures are unlikely, but the re- covery's pause in July shows people still fear Covid

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Aug 2021 Setting the Record Straight on Why Retail Sales Fell in July

  • The Delta variant is to blame for July's fall in retail sales, not the rain, zeal for dining out, or alleged shortages.
  • Surveys show households were less willing to visit both shops and services providers last month.
  • Retailers are unlikely to benefit from any future recovery in consumers' confidence.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.

The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.

Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2021 Amazon Prime Day Likely Launched Retail Sales to New Heights in June

We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 July 2021 Will Inventory Replenishment Turbocharge the Recovery?

Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2021 Households' Wealth hasn't Soared, Despite Recent Cash Hoarding

The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 June 2021 The First Rate Hike Still Looks Distant, after June's MPC Minutes

Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June 2021

In one line: Sticking to the script; high inflation still seen as transitory.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 June 2021 Don't Take the PMIs at Face Value, Other Surveys Signal Slower Growth

June’s Markit/CIPS PMIs suggest that the economic recovery still has plenty of momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 June 2021 A Copycat Hawkish Surprise from the BoE this week

The hawkish surprise last week from the U.S. Fed has left many investors questioning whether the MPC will follow suit this Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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