Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

April

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April

  • In one line:  Month-to-month gains are slowing, as higher mortgage rates bite.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, April 2022

  • In one line: Deficit still set to equal the largest share of GDP since the mid-1970s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, April

  • In one line: On course for a sharp contraction in Q2, which will force the MPC to pause its tightening cycle soon.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, April 2022

  • In one line: Households still appear unwilling to draw on their savings to support spending 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April 2022

  • In one line: A subpar start to 2022/23; central government borrowing is running ahead of target.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April 2022

  • In one line: Record low confidence doesn’t automatically mean a recession is coming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2022

  • In one line:  Jumping broadly as anticipated; expect the headline rate to ease slightly over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March/April 2022

  • In one line: No need for the MPC to panic about wage growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 May 2022 Net Upside Risk to the MPC's 9.1% Forecast for April CPI Inflation

CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.

BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...

...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2022 Brisk Quarterly GDP Growth Masks a Slowdown during Q1

Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.

Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.

Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2022

  • In one line: Dropping again, as households tighten their purse strings.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Output growth slowing, as sharp price rises take a toll on demand. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, April 2022

  • In one line: Private car sales remain under pressure from the intensifying squeeze on real disposable incomes. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Services Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Overstating the likely rate of GDP growth in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Price pressures are weighing on business confidence. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, April 2022

  • In one line: Tentative evidence that the housing market is starting to slow. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, April 2022

  • In one line:  Mounting pressure on real incomes is increasingly weighing on households’ expenditure. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence