- The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023.
- Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't immediately impact the CPI...
- ...Future prices still imply that Ofgem will lower slightly the default tariff cap next year, not raise it further.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
- Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
- Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
- The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
- Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The Delta variant is to blame for July's fall in retail sales, not the rain, zeal for dining out, or alleged shortages.
- Surveys show households were less willing to visit both shops and services providers last month.
- Retailers are unlikely to benefit from any future recovery in consumers' confidence.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing.
The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker underlying picture is emerging.
Prices still are rising sharply, but there are some early signs that the upward pressure is easing.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Sticking to the script; high inflation still seen as transitory.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
June’s Markit/CIPS PMIs suggest that the economic recovery still has plenty of momentum.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The hawkish surprise last week from the U.S. Fed has left many investors questioning whether the MPC will follow suit this Thursday.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
