Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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April

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR's new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2021 03:13U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

23 Feb 2021 GDP Still can Recover Significantly in March, Despite Reopening Caution

GDP Still can Recover Significantly in March, Despite Reopening Caution

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Feb 2021 08:15U.K.

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

4 Feb 2021 A Q2 Rebound Looks Even More Likely, Following Positive Vaccine Trial Data

A Q2 Rebound Looks Even More Likely, Following Positive Vaccine Trial Data

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Jan 2021 Public Borrowing Set to Hit £400B this Year, Despite Recent Trends

The public finances are in worse shape than the latest borrowing numbers indicate. For now, the ONS estimates that borrowing on the main "PSNB ex."

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

19 Jan 2021 Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

6 Jan 2021 Spring Recovery Contingent on the Pace of Vaccine Rollout

The downturn in economic activity in Q1 is set to be even deeper than we first thought at the start of this week, following the new lockdown announced on Monday...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

4 Jan 2021 January GDP Will Sink Below November's Lockdown Level

The emergence of a new strain of Covid-19— B117—which is about 70% more infectious than those before it, has lowered the level of economic activity that is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:30U.K.

18 Dec 2020 MPC Signals it Won't Hesitate to Ease Further in the Event of No-Deal

The MPC surprised nobody in voting unanimously this week to keep Bank Rate at 0.10% and to maintain its targets for the stock of government and corporate bond purchases at £875B...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Dec 2020 13:00U.K.

17 Dec 2020 Risks of a 2021 Inflation Overshoot are Low, Absent No-Deal

The decline in CPI inflation to 0.3% in November, from 0.7% in October, likely doesn't represent a shift in the underlying trend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

18 Nov 2020 Retail Sales Likely Edged Down in October, But a New Peak Lies Ahead

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes--the data are released on Friday--looks too sanguine. We look for a fall...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

21 Oct 2020 September Likely was the Last Hurrah for Retail Sales

September's retail sales figures, released on Friday, look set to show that spending climbed to a new record-high, despite this year's decline in households'...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

16 Oct 2020 Near-Real-Time Data Show the Recovery has Hit a Wall

Many indicators continue to suggest that the economic recovery has stalled.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

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