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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.
BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...
...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.
Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.
Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.
Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.
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Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
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