UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- February’s money and credit data show consumer caution fading, which should support GDP growth.
- Mortgage approvals hit an 18-month high, and lumpsum repayments fell to their lowest since May 2020.
- Declines in mortgage interest rates this year will boost the housing market and spending further.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS APRIL...
- ...THE MPC HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO START CUTTING IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR expects the economy to grow three times as fast in 2025 as the MPC does.
- Its productivity growth forecast, however, is likely to be disappointed, boosting government borrowing.
- Without action, government debt-to-GDP will probably still be rising in 2029.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that house prices were trending up at a 0.4% month-to-month rate in February.
- We expect monthly house-purchase mortgage approvals to rise to 65K in May, from 55K in January.
- Gradual mortgage-rate falls and firm income growth should allow house prices to rise 4% in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Last week the MPC hammered home the message that rate cuts are coming soon.
- The Committee will likely reduce inflation persistence in its May forecasts, setting up a June rate cut.
- We think the MPC will cut more slowly than the market expects, as it learns from the data where neutral is.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales are on track to drag the economy out of recession in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening finances will drive consumer spending this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation rose to a 28-month high in March.
- Retail sales beat the consensus in February, staying on track for a 1.7% quarter-to-quarter gain in Q1.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to comfortably exceed the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: MPC gears up for a summer rate cut with tweaks to guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Turning point; house prices to rise for the rest of 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing inflation will raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price gains heading to 5% year-over-year soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected inflation and wages likely raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
- A stronger-than-expected growth rebound suggests some caution still.
- So, we expect no major change to the guidance at the MPC’s meeting on March 21.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong imports worsen the trade deficit.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
