UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Samuel Tombs
- In one line: GDP will return to a rising path in 2024; the MPC needn’t panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Near-term momentum in services price rises is slowing, bolstering Q2 rate cut chances.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC won’t put much weight on news GDP fell again in Q4, not least due to the upward bias in revisions.
- The downside surprise in GDP relative to the MPC’s forecast was largely due to real government expenditure.
- Surveys of business and consumer confidence have strengthened into 2024; expect GDP to rise again in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
- Headline CPI inflation and services CPI inflation both undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in January.
- Sharp falls in accommodation prices and airfares helped but the underlying rate of services price rises also eased.
- The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- The fall in the LFS measure of unemployment in H2 is inconsistent with indicators of improving staff availability.
- The risk of non-response bias is very high; just 15% of approached households participated in the LFS in Q4.
- Ex-bonus wages rose 4.0% month-to-month annual- ised in December, but revisions might alter the picture.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a below-consensus 1.3% month-to-month rise in January retail sales...
- ...Surveys were very weak, and December’s sharp drop might be revised smaller, reducing scope for a rebound.
- Sticky energy payments might explain some of the gap between rising real disposable income and spending.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation rose merely to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December...
- ...But services inflation likely leapt by 0.5pp to 6.9%; January 2023’s fall in the catering CPI likely wasn’t repeated.
- Our services inflation forecast exceeds the MPC’s, but it would still point to slowing near-term momentum.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most labour demand indicators have weakened a bit further, so employee numbers were likely flat in January.
- LFS data remain of poor quality; the unemployment rate is probably slightly higher than the current data suggest.
- We expect a 0.4% month-to-month rise in ex-bonus AWE in December, still inconsistent with the inflation target.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think GDP dropped by 0.3% month-to-month in December, contributing to a 0.1% quarter-to-quarter fall.
- Stormy weather likely disrupted construction output; strikes weighed on output in the health sector.
- News of a mild recession, however, won’t take the MPC’s attention away from the risk of ingrained high inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strengthening recovery will allow the MPC to take its time.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Optimism improving as lower borrowing costs start to underpin demand.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December, mainly due to base effects.
- BRC data point to a plunge in core goods CPI inflation, though the relatively early Index Day will limit the decline.
- The MPC expects the headline rate to rise slightly, but the scale of the jump in services inflation will surprise it.
Samuel TombsUK
- The ONS now estimates the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November, from 4.2% in August...
- ...But it still hasn’t addressed the collapse in the LFS response rate; other data point to rising unemployment.
- Hidden slack also increased in H2; the number of inactive people wanting work rose, while average hours fell.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Downward revision to unemployment rate increases pressure on the MPC to wait.
Samuel TombsUK
- The outlook for real household disposable income has continued to improve...
- ...Energy prices have fallen and wage growth is moderating slowly; expect further tax cuts in the Budget.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates by 75bp in 2024— markets nearly agree—but the risk of fewer cuts has risen.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Supply chain disruptions threaten to compound the demand-driven downturn in output.
Samuel TombsUK
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Samuel TombsUK
- New population estimates will likely raise the Chancellor’s room for tax cuts by £5B-to-£10B.
- The ONS has raised its forecast for growth in the working age population to 1.0% y/y over 2023-2029, from 0.6%.
- We think the OBR will respond by lifting its forecast for year-over-year growth in potential GDP by about 0.1pp.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Households won’t stay this cautious for long.
Samuel TombsUK
- The pick-up in liquid assets despite meagre net borrowing implies households chose to save more in late 2023.
- Savings in real terms might still be below trend, but they are better distributed among households than a year ago.
- Lower mortgage rates have triggered only a small rise in approvals to date, but they will continue to recover in Q1.
Samuel TombsUK
