Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Samuel Tombs

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q3 2023

  • In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November 2023

  • In one line: The consolidation is progressing well enough for modest tax cuts in the Budget.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2023

  • In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December 2023

  • In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December

  • In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October 2023

  • In one line: A broad-based drop, but expect a recovery in the final two months of 2023.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October/November 2023

  • In one line:  The trend in wage growth is weakening, but not as dramatically as October’s data imply.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, November 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with a modest revival in retail sales; expect a fuller recovery in 2024.  

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, October 2023

  • In one line: Households remain focussed on repaying debt and replenishing their savings, but we doubt they will become even more cautious ahead. 

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November 2023

  • In one line: Further reassurance a recession isn’t developing.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Autumn Statement 2023

  • In one line: No major pre-election giveaways; the course is clear for the MPC to cut Bank Rate next year.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October 2023

  • In one line: A timely reminder that considerable further fiscal consolidation is needed.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2023

  • In one line: Well below the MPC’s forecast, thanks to slowing services CPI inflation.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September/October 2023

  • In one line: Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 2024.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September 2023

  • In one line: The fall in households’ spending will be reversed in Q4.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, October 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, October 2023

  • In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, October 2023

In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat. 

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, November

  • In one line: New forecasts signal no rate cuts in 2024, but the MPC won’t be bound by them. 

Samuel TombsUK

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence