UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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HOUSE PRICES DIP IN MARCH...
- ...AND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUBDUED THROUGHOUT 2026
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in May after surveys deteriorated.
- The headline unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.0% in April.
- Wage inflation will continue to ease further into the MPC’s inflation-target-consistent range.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits hiring plans in May, but sentiment is likely better now than the REC suggests.
- In one line: Slowing growth and easing price pressures skews risks towards rates on hold in 2026.
- In one line: Construction PMI likely too downbeat, but output still set to fall over the coming months.
- In one line:Car registrations resilient in May but demand will slow as higher borrowing costs bite.
- In one line: Easing price expectations and falling jobs raise the chances of the MPC keeping rates on hold.
- Activity data softened over the past week, suggesting underlying growth has slowed slightly.
- The DMP will give the MPC comfort that second- round inflation effects are failing to worsening.
- But survey measures of prices and wages continue to signal inflation persisting well above the 2% target.
- We expect CPI inflation to increase to 3.0% in May, from 2.8% in April.
- Airfares will recover, and last year’s vehicle-duty correction will boost recorded inflation.
- Motor fuel prices have peaked, but utility and food bills will push inflation to a peak of 3.6% in November.
- PMI services responses between the flash and final release were the most optimistic in five months.
- Political noise likely drove revisions, and underlying growth is probably still slowing.
- But the PMI tends to exaggerate growth slowdowns when uncertainty is high.
- In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.
- We see few signs of changing saving patterns since the Iran war started; households are rejigging assets.
- Strong mortgage approvals and corporate credit flows suggest some front-running of rate hikes.
- But strong April credit growth—after mortgage rates spiked—suggests underlying demand is firm.
- The unwinding of fuel-hoarding likely drove a 0.2% month-to-month fall in GDP growth in April.
- We see risks to our April call in both directions, from better weather and a resident doctors’ strike.
- Downside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth as a whole are building, after the PMI tanked in May.
- In one line: House price inflation to gradually ease over the rest of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing growth will slow as front-running unwinds, but price pressures are building.
- In one line: Downward revision to 2025/26 borrowing leaves little net news, but higher inflation will boost borrowing in the year ahead.
- In one line: Limited fall in ex-petrol retail sales suggest consumption is slowing rather than collapsing.
- In one line: Early May sample period leaves confidence looking too rosy.
- In one line: Sharp output downturn leaves MPC more likely to hold in July.
