UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Data in the past month have been hawkish: rising GDP, a recovering job market and strong inflation.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Strong growth and sticky inflation mean we expect the MPC to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity looks subdued but stable, it should recover in H2.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Cautious guidance and strain on long-dated gilts suggest the MPC will slow the pace of QT.
- We expect rate-setters to opt for a reduced pace of £70B-per-year for the next 12 months from October.
- Level of reserves in the system is high, but use of the short-term repo facility indicates demand for liquidity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The insolvency rate remains low and steady, indicating that corporate distress is contained.
- Leading indicators suggest that insolvencies will remain around current levels in the coming months.
- Solid GDP growth and falling borrowing costs will limit corporate distress in H2.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth will match the MPC’s expectations in Q3.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Another week of hawkish data makes the MPC’s August cut look increasingly like a mistake.
- Inflation is too sticky and growth too strong for another rate cut any time soon.
- Market pricing has moved significantly closer to our call for the MPC to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
