UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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HOUSE PRICES DROP IN JULY...
- ...AND BUDGET UNCERTAINTY TO DRAG ON ACTIVITY IN H2
- September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
- GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
- Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.
BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
- In one line: Manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of the year.
- In one line: House prices jump in September but we look for a subdued second half of the year.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- In one line: Manufacturing output will slowly recover in the coming months.
- In one line: The PMI cools in September but growth will still run at a healthy pace in Q3.
- In one line: Growth still reliant on government, but business investment growing through the H1 headwinds is an encouraging sign.
- In one line: Confident consumers and rising corporate credit flow signal healthy GDP growth.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
- In one line: Little news, as underlying services inflation settling in the low-4%'s will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of this year.
- In one line: A slightly more cautious MPC will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: House price inflation will remain weak as the Budget weighs on sentiment.
- In one line:Ms. Reeves has a revenue problem.
- In one line:Retail sales head for a solid Q3 and growth will likely be revised up.
- In one line: Strong personal finances will help consumers keep spending.
