UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
- New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
- We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
- A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
- The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
- But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
- Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
- Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with two members favouring a 50bp reduction.
- The MPC will likely judge that lower market expectations for Bank Rate are mostly warranted.
- High uncertainty will sap growth, and a new disinflationary scenario should support faster rate cuts.
- We expect the initial April payrolls estimate to show a fall of 30K month-to-month.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.5% in March, and LFS employment should gain 166K.
- Pay growth remains strong; we expect private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
- The insolvency rate remains low, and well below recession levels.
- Payroll-tax hikes have stopped the insolvency rate falling, and leading indicators have ticked up a little.
- We expect corporate distress to stay low, even as the trade war weighs on GDP growth.
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
