UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
- The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
- The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
- Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
- An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
- …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.
- We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
- Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
- Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
- U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
- We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
- The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
- We cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter from 0.3% previously, after soft data.
- Energy prices nudge up our inflation forecasts; we see CPI inflation peaking at 3.7% in September.
- We see payrolls and GDP rebounding, which keeps us expecting only one more rate cut this year.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
- The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
- …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
- The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
