UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Consumers’ confidence fell in September but remains higher than the economic fundamentals would imply.
- Optimism among younger demographics is supporting consumers’ confidence.
- The November Budget and inflation averaging 3.3% over the coming year represent risks to sentiment.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices dropped by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
- Forward-looking indicators for the housing market suggest that activity will remain muted in H2.
- The November Budget represents a wild card for house prices, as rumours of property-tax hikes swirl.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in September and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3...
- ...But the PMI has been more erratic lately than usual, so we retain our call for growth of 0.2% in Q3.
- Easing price pressures will encourage the MPC, but solid growth will limit emergence of spare capacity.
- The public finances deteriorated in August; borrowing is now drifting well above profile.
- Weak receipts account for most of the fiscal underperformance so far this year.
- We think the Government has to raise £25B to restore the paltry £9.9B of fiscal headroom.
- A stabilising labour market and sticky underlying inflation support out call for no more rate cuts.
- Hawkish details in the MPC minutes raise the bar to another cut this year.
- Awful public finance data reduce the chance that Chancellor Reeves will soften duty hikes next year.
- The MPC kept rates on hold at September’s meeting, as consensus and the markets expected.
- The minutes were fractionally more hawkish than in August; we continue to expect no more cuts this year.
- The pace of quantitative tightening will be slowed to £70B in 2025/26, from £100B in 2024/25.
- Lower airfare inflation offset higher food and motor fuels, leaving CPI inflation at 3.8% in August.
- Underlying services inflation accelerated to 4.3%, from 4.2% in July, where it will stay until the spring.
- We expect CPI inflation to hit 4.0% in September—with upside risk—and then ease only slowly.
- Payroll falls are easing as firms complete their adjustment to tax and minimum wage hikes.
- Q2 workforce jobs data suggests payrolls exaggerate weakness, while the unemployment rate is steady.
- A stabilising labour market with firm wage growth will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year at least.
- Policy U-turns, a small growth downgrade and higher gilt yields will consume the Chancellor’s headroom.
- We expect the Chancellor to rebuild her £9.9B margin of headroom with stealth, ‘sin’ and duty hikes.
- The Budget will have a minimal impact on the MPC as the adjustments will be backloaded to 2029/30.
- GDP was unchanged in July as an erratic fall in industrial output offset rising services.
- Underlying GDP growth looks solid to us; little spare capacity will emerge in the economy.
- We expect a hawkish week ahead, with the August data to show stabilising jobs and rising inflation.
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate setters are focused on inflation which is proving persistent, while job falls should ease.
- We look for rate setters to slow QT to £70B a year from October, with sales skewed to shorter durations.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, but only just on the rounding.
- Stronger food, motor fuel and hotel prices—boosted by an Oasis concert—should offset weaker airfares.
- We expect CPI inflation to peak at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% previously, above the MPC’s 4.0% call.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
- Another hawkish week leaves us happy forecasting growth at potential and sticky inflation.
- We still think job falls will ease in the coming months, but risks are building, as shown by the DMP.
- We expect no more rate cuts from the MPC, but jobs will have to turn around soon to keep that on track.
