UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, November 2025

• In one line:Fiscal plans rest on shaky foundations.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, December 2025

• In one line: A post-Budget sigh of relief from consumers, and sentiment has further to rise.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, December 2025

• In one line: Cautious cut, we see one more in April, but it will be another closely fought decision. 

22 December 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: it's almost a wrap, Season's Greetings!

• The MPC squeezed in a fourth rate cut for 2025 in response to weak wage, growth and inflation data.
• But rate-setters suggested limited room for more cuts, surprising the market hawkishly.
• We expect one more cut in April now, but that could easily be knocked off course by stubborn wages.

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, December 2025

• In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, October / November 2025

• In one line: Budget chaos hits job growth, but pay growth remains strong nonetheless so the MPC will have to be cautious.

UK Datanote: UK GDP October 2025

• In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, October 2025

• In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.

UK Datanote: UK Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, Q4 2025

• In one line: Small fall in inflation expectations helps the case for a rate cut next week.

15 December 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: pre-Budget chaos drags on activity in October

• GDP disappointed expectations, falling 0.1% month-to-month in October, as services output fell sharply.
• Autos production will boost activity in November, and a number of erratic falls should rebound...
• This week’s data have a high bar to keep the MPC on hold, but little room remains to keep cutting in 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Price Index, November 2025

• In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us. 

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, October 2025

• In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, November 2025

• In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.

8 December 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: growth and inflation risks shift down

• Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
• The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
• We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.

UK Datanote: UK Budget, November 2025

• In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.

1 December 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: Another dubious tax-and-spend Budget

• The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
• We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
• This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.