- In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Car registrations tank as duties increase.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity improves according to the CBI, but the trade war will hurt businesses.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers' major purchases held up, but downside risks to the retail spending build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales were heating up before President Trump’s tariffs upended the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
