UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
- In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
TARIFF SHOCK WORSENS WORST-CASE SCENARIO...
- …SO FASTER RATE CUTS LOOM
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with two members favouring a 50bp reduction.
- The MPC will likely judge that lower market expectations for Bank Rate are mostly warranted.
- High uncertainty will sap growth, and a new disinflationary scenario should support faster rate cuts.
- We expect the initial April payrolls estimate to show a fall of 30K month-to-month.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.5% in March, and LFS employment should gain 166K.
- Pay growth remains strong; we expect private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity improves according to the CBI, but the trade war will hurt businesses.
- In one line: Consumers' major purchases held up, but downside risks to the retail spending build.
- In one line:Retail sales were heating up before President Trump’s tariffs upended the outlook.
- The insolvency rate remains low, and well below recession levels.
- Payroll-tax hikes have stopped the insolvency rate falling, and leading indicators have ticked up a little.
- We expect corporate distress to stay low, even as the trade war weighs on GDP growth.
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
