UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.
- The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
- We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
- Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
- We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
- We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.
- In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment.
- In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.
- In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...
- …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR
- Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
- Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
- Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
