UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
- We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing growth leaps and feeds through to modest price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: April was a bad month for consumers, but don’t write them off.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices are resisting the mortgage rate rise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter for the rest of the year, after the 0.6% increase in Q1.
- Sticky services prices and energy effects mean we see inflation rising to 2.8% by Q4 2024.
- We now expect the first Bank Rate cut in August, then once per quarter thereafter.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI points to growth well in excess of MPC forecasts and robust inflation pressure.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strong April services inflation was just a flash in the pan according to the PMI.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK