Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2023

  • In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December

  • In one line: Manufacturing output likely has further to fall. 

UK

20 December 2023 UK Monitor Falling Mortgage Rates Point to a Revival in House Prices in 2024

  • Timely indicators of house-purchase demand have strengthened, but not by quite enough to raise prices yet.
  • House price indices still paint very different pictures; we expect the official index to be revised down.
  • Demand, however, will recover further in Q1, as mortgage rates continue to fall; expect a 5% rise in prices in 2024. 

Samuel TombsUK

19 December 2023 UK Monitor Consumer Energy Bills to Fall by 10% in April, Driving Down Inflation

  • Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
  • Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
  • The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December 2023

  • In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer's Confidence Survey, December

  • In one line: Recovery should gather momentum next year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December

  • In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, October 2023

  • In one line: Narrowing trend to re-emerge during the rest of Q4.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October 2023

  • In one line: A broad-based drop, but expect a recovery in the final two months of 2023.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October/November 2023

  • In one line:  The trend in wage growth is weakening, but not as dramatically as October’s data imply.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, November 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, November 2023

In one line: Recession fears should be quelled by November’s PMI. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November 2023

  • In one line: Still weak, but car sales should rebound next year. 

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2023

  • In one line: Consistent with a modest revival in retail sales; expect a fuller recovery in 2024.  

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2023

  • In one line: Manufacturing output is being hit by retailers running down their inventories.

UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2023

  • In one line: Don’t get too excited about the prospect of a sustained recovery just yet,  

UK

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,