UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate setters are focused on inflation which is proving persistent, while job falls should ease.
- We look for rate setters to slow QT to £70B a year from October, with sales skewed to shorter durations.
- In one line: Job falls ease sharply but spare capacity is still building in the labour market.
- In one line: Retail spending can power another solid quarter of economic growth in Q3.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.9% in August from 3.8% in July, but only just on the rounding.
- Stronger food, motor fuel and hotel prices—boosted by an Oasis concert—should offset weaker airfares.
- We expect CPI inflation to peak at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% previously, above the MPC’s 4.0% call.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
- In one line: Strong growth and stubborn price pressures will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: The PMI inches up but still remains overly downbeat.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressures should keep the MPC cautious, but falling employment is a building risk.
- In one line: Private car registrations should continue to rise as displacement demand drives sales.
SOLID GROWTH AND STICKY INFLATION...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD BANK RATE FOR THE REST OF 2025
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in July, as services output and industrial production stagnate.
- Activity in the construction sector likely fell, following the lead from chronically weak business sentiment.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, with risks skewed up.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
- The yield curve has steepened sharply since our last gilt market update in April, driven by higher real rates.
- A reduction in the pace of QT from October has the potential to support the long end at the margin.
- Acute fiscal risks mean we raise our year-end target for yields across the curve.
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
