UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor
- We expect the initial April payrolls estimate to show a fall of 30K month-to-month.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.5% in March, and LFS employment should gain 166K.
- Pay growth remains strong; we expect private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity improves according to the CBI, but the trade war will hurt businesses.
- In one line: Consumers' major purchases held up, but downside risks to the retail spending build.
- In one line:Retail sales were heating up before President Trump’s tariffs upended the outlook.
- The insolvency rate remains low, and well below recession levels.
- Payroll-tax hikes have stopped the insolvency rate falling, and leading indicators have ticked up a little.
- We expect corporate distress to stay low, even as the trade war weighs on GDP growth.
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
- In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
- Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
- Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
- Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
