UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor
- House prices jumped in November, leaving our call for a 2.0% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 on track.
- We expect the market to heat up in 2026, as new buyers return from the sidelines.
- House price inflation should rise to 3.0% by Q4 2026, supported by stronger demand and weak supply.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
- The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
- Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.
- The BRC Shop Price Index showed goods inflation hitting a near two-year high in January.
- Strength was widespread and pushes up our January CPI inflation forecast to 3.1%, from 3.0% before.
- We treat the BRC with some caution, yet it carries a warning that inflation pressures may remain elevated.
- Retail sales growth month-to-month was flattered by jewellery sales and seasonals in December.
- But revisions mean sales increased by a solid 2.7% month-to-month annualised over 2024-to-25.
- Rising major purchase intentions and younger people’s confidence bode well for the outlook.
- In one line: Economic momentum to build in Q1.
- In one line:Retail sales rebound and have further to recover in 2026.
- In one line: Consumers' confidence can continue to rise slowly in 2026.
- December’s public finances report showed borrowing was below the OBR’s most recent projections.
- The shaky foundations of the Budget create a risk of looser fiscal policy in the coming years.
- Risks are tilted towards a sell-off in the gilt market as investors re-price in long-term fiscal pressures.
- In one line: Underlying inflation remians sticky, even though headline CPI is set to temporarily slow in the first half of 2026.
- In one line: Enough to allow the MPC to wait until April to cut again.
- Tobacco duty and a jump in airfares drove up CPI inflation to 3.4% in December, a touch above our call.
- We note a few obvious erratic factors, with a January airfares correction likely balanced by solid hotel prices.
- Inflation gives rate-setters little reason to rush to cut next month, but we see a final rate reduction in April.
- Yesterday’s labour-market headlines were dovish, with payrolls falling and wage growth slowing.
- But payrolls look implausibly weak relative to surveys, while job vacancies point to stable labour demand.
- Compositional effects flatter the pay slowing in 2025, while PAYE points to a large AWE jump in December.
- The Reform Party is well ahead in the polls, and Sir Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular with voters.
- A drubbing for the government at the local elections in May could trigger a Labour leadership challenge.
- Most roads lead to further fiscal U-turns, increasing the risk of looser fiscal policy.
- In one line: Loosening credit availability will help growth and falling secured credit defaults point to limited household distress.
- In one line: The headline trade balance will improve as falls in erratic components unwind.
- In one line:November flattered by unwinding hit to autos, but growth is still on track to beat the MPC's call in Q4.
- In one line: The housing market is primed for a recovery in 2026.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
