UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor
- Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
- ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
- We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
- In one line: Car registrations will bounce back as borrowing costs fall and the market normalises after duty hikes.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.
- In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise.
- CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
- We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up to an 8K fall in June, and to drop by 7K in July.
- Vacancies leading indicators suggest the labour market is stabilising after-payroll-tax-hike disruption.
- We expect another solid private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain, at 0.4% month-to-month in June.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will continue to recover from the tariff-induced slowdown.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
