UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor
- In one line: Loosening credit availability will help growth and falling secured credit defaults point to limited household distress.
- In one line: The headline trade balance will improve as falls in erratic components unwind.
- In one line:November flattered by unwinding hit to autos, but growth is still on track to beat the MPC's call in Q4.
- In one line: The housing market is primed for a recovery in 2026.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in December, but hiring will improve in 2026.
- The LFS unemployment rate will drop to 5.0% in November, but that still likely overplays job weakness.
- Wage inflation will moderate in December, but surveys suggest the pace of pay growth is flattening.
- In one line: Few reasons for builders to be more optimistic in 2026, so the construction PMI will remain weak.
- In one line: Job falls ease after the Budget circus ends while inflation remains stick.
- Manufacturing output likely rose in November as auto production recovered after the JLR cyber attack.
- Leading indicators suggest that consumer-facing services were spared the worst of pre-Budget worries.
- Output growth in Q4 2025 will likely run close to the MPC’s forecast and the steer from the PMI.
- In one line: Discounting and post-Budget relief boost autos sales in December, but the trend remains upwards.
- In one line: Look past the dissapointing headline, because forward-looking balances improved and price pressures strengthened.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- In one line: The money and credit data for November show a solid footing for activity in 2026.
- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
- Q3 GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, down from 0.2% in Q2.
- Business investment in Q3 was revised up, and declining borrowing costs should boost credit flows.
- The household saving rate fell to 9.5% in Q3, from 10.2% in Q2, and should continue to drop in 2026.
- In one line: Downside news focused in volatile items and partly driven by early discounting, while underlying inflation pressures remained firm.
- In one line: Post-Budget relief boosts manufacturing sentiment, but activity will rise only slowly in 2026.
