UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Webinar Daily Monitor
- The headline CPI rose at a three-month-on-three-month annualised rate of just 1.8% in November.
- The MPC won’t dismiss this as just noise; its new measure of underlying services inflation has slowed too.
- Stable producer prices and falling energy prices imply the headline rate will hit the 2% target as soon as May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Timely indicators of house-purchase demand have strengthened, but not by quite enough to raise prices yet.
- House price indices still paint very different pictures; we expect the official index to be revised down.
- Demand, however, will recover further in Q1, as mortgage rates continue to fall; expect a 5% rise in prices in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
- Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
- The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC still thinks that monetary policy will need to be restrictive “for an extended period of time”.
- It downplayed recent downside data surprises and continued to fret about upward inflation risks.
- It will wait for clarity on fiscal policy and the impact of the NLW hike before easing; the first cut will come in May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most of October’s 0.3% month-to-month fall in GDP probably was reversed in November...
- ...Some sectors struggled in October due to bad weather; survey and employee data point to modest GDP growth.
- The near-term outlook for real household disposable income is positive; a recession is still only a tail risk.
Samuel TombsUK
- The first estimate of a month-to-month drop in wages in October likely will be revised to a small rise soon...
- ...but the rising trend has weakened greatly since Q2, and PAYE RTI data point to further near-term weakness.
- Wage growth will accelerate only slightly in the run-up to April’s NLW hike; the MPC can cut rates in May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Services CPI inflation likely rose to 6.6% in November, from 6.5%, but undershot the MPC’s 6.9% forecast.
- Surveys point to an ongoing slowdown in service price rises; the energy price shock has filtered through...
- ...But accommodation services and TV subscription prices likely picked up in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in October, despite disruption from Storm Babet.
- The composite PMI points to a decline in activity, but we think it has been excessively weak recently.
- Output in the health sector likely increased again, driven by a pick-up in Covid booster vaccinations.
Samuel TombsUK
- Employee numbers likely were broadly unchanged month-to-month in November.
- PAYE figures and ONS survey data point to a further loss of upward momentum in wages in October...
- ...But rises in the Real Living Wage and public- sector pay likely supported growth temporarily
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI topped 50 in November for the first time since July and is likely understating GDP growth.
- S&P’s bespoke seasonal adjustment process is depressing the PMI; public-sector output will rise in Q4.
- S&P’s survey also signals slowing service price rises and flat employment; a May Bank Rate cut is still in play.
UK
- Redundancy notifications jumped in mid-November; the rise isn’t just due to one big business failure.
- Both the Adzuna and Indeed measures of job vacan- cies also have fallen during the fourth quarter.
- Some measures of employment intentions are robust, but job hoarding might ease as unemployment rises.
Samuel TombsUK
- The latest data add weight to our view that a recession will be avoided and Bank Rate will start to fall from Q2.
- GDP looks set to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q4, with a recovery in real incomes driving household spending.
- The Autumn Statement has done little to change our forecasts, we still expect fiscal consolidation in 2024/25.
Samuel TombsUK
- Households made another net repayment of mortgage debt in October; expect more of the same this winter.
- September’s rise in the household saving rate was sustained in October, but we don’t expect a further increase.
- Many households have now regained the savings buffer they lost in 2022; unsecured borrowing has scope to rise.
Samuel TombsUK
- The OBR expects growth in output per hour of 1.0% y/y over the next five years, above the 2010s average, 0.7%...
- ...But it has averaged 0.5% since 2019, and that assumes employment has risen as slowly as the LFS implies.
- Productivity in the manufacturing sector will eventually snap back, but a wider acceleration isn’t likely.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most supermarkets can raise wages by just 4% in 2024 and remain compliant with the National Living Wage...
- ...They no longer need to pay staff a larger-than-usual premium over the NLW, given the rise in unemployment.
- Firms told the Low Pay Commission they doubt they will pass on higher labour costs in 2024 as much as in 2023.
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI edged above 50 in November, for the first time since July; consumer demand is reviving...
- ...Firms, however, are still reducing employment slightly, and output prices are rising more slowly than a year ago.
- By May, the labour market will have loosened and CPI inflation fallen enough for the MPC to start to cut rates.
Samuel TombsUK
- The OBR judges the Autumn Statement measures lift aggregate demand relative to supply by 0.1% at most.
- Fiscal policy remains set to be tightened substantially next year, almost as much as previously planned.
- Mr. Hunt might cut more taxes in March, but the rise in gilt yields after his NI announcement will instil caution.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing in October exceeded the OBR’s March Budget forecast for the first time this year.
- Revisions by the OBR to its economic assumptions likely will not lower the borrowing forecast materially.
- Mr. Hunt’s fiscal rules don’t rule out tax cuts, but he likely will delay most until after the election to buy some votes.
Samuel TombsUK
- On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
- Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
- ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.
Samuel TombsUK
- The official house price index in September was only 0.7% below its November 2022 peak...
- ...but the first estimate usually is revised down by 1%, and Q3’s rise in mortgage rates hasn’t impacted the data yet.
- The better outlook for mortgage rates, however, hints prices in Q1 will stabilise at 5%, not 6%, below their peak.
UK