UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Datanotes
- January’s composite PMI data point to GDP rising at a near-trend 0.2% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1.
- S&P’s survey also points to 0.2% q/q growth in employ- ment, which would stop unemployment rising further.
- Producer output prices remain flat despite shipping disruptions, but services inflation is fading only slowly.
UK
- Public borrowing is on course to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for 2023/24 by about £5B.
- ‘Fiscal headroom’ is a distraction; Mr. Hunt will cut taxes as much as he can without jeopardising MPC rate cuts.
- We expect Budget tax cuts of £20B in 2024/25, but some people might save the windfall, fearing tax hikes soon.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Falling interest payments create scope for tax cuts which the gilt market can tolerate.
Samuel TombsUK
- Vacancies are falling and redundancies are grinding higher; still no big shifts, but February is a key month.
- The OBR’s medium-term RPI inflation forecast is too low; a reappraisal would limit the rise in fiscal headroom.
- Markets’ willingness to absorb extra issuance is the main constraint on tax cuts; Mr. Hunt won’t push it too far.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: It’s always darkest before the dawn.
UK
- In one line: Consistent with a recovery in 2024.
UK
- The official house price index will fall further in Q1, in response to last year's rise in mortgage rates...
- ...But mortgage payment affordability will improve rap- idly this year, as rates come down and incomes rise.
- The timeliest indicators of house purchase demand have rebounded; prices will return to their peak by year-end.
UK
- In one line: Further falls and additional downward revisions should mean a 5% peak-to-trough fall.
UK
- In one line: Slowing trend in the all-items index maintained, despite December’s rebound.
Samuel TombsUK
- Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in the all-items CPI slowed to just 1.4% in December...
- ...and to 2.2% for the core CPI; both headline and service inflation have undershot the MPC's forecast.
- The combination of falling energy prices and flat goods prices points to a 2% headline rate by April.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth looks real, but the MPC will remain anxious about the near-term outlook.
Samuel TombsUK
- The autumn slowdown in wage growth looks real; revisions after the second estimate tend to be small...
- ...But surveys point to a near-term re-acceleration, and the NLW hike looks set to have some bite.
- The unemployment rate is rising slowly; the MPC can’t be confident it is already above or near its equilibrium.
Samuel TombsUK
- Investors now attach a small probability to the MPC cutting Bank Rate by 50bp at one of its meetings.
- Almost one-third of Bank Rate cuts have been larger than 25bp, but the odds are low this year.
- Markets aren’t stressed, recession risks are easing and the MPC would prefer sub-2% to above-target inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Narrowing trend to re-emerge during the rest of Q4.
UK
- In one line: The underlying trend still looks flat, but a genuine recovery will take hold this year.
Samuel TombsUK
- We expect sterling to continue to appreciate gradually against the dollar, reaching $1.30 by the end of the year.
- Markets’ expectations for Fed rate cuts look well founded, but the MPC will be more cautious than investors expect.
- Public opinion would have to shift dramatically for the election to lead to a sterling-damaging hung parliament.
UK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 3.9% in December, staying 0.7pp below the MPC’s MPR forecast.
- Core goods CPI inflation probably recovered a bit after November’s dip, but services inflation likely edged down.
- A base effect likely reduced accommodation services inflation; no reason to expect an erratic airfares outturn.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for flat employee numbers in December, a slight deterioration compared to earlier months in 2023...
- ...But October’s fall in AWE will be revised smaller, and public sector pay rises likely boosted AWE in November.
- The slowdown in wage growth likely will still be too mild for the MPC to change its tune at February’s meeting.
Samuel TombsUK
- Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
- Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
- The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.
Samuel TombsUK