UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.
- In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence has further to fall in 2026.
- In one line: Households and businesses on solid financial footing heading into the energy price shock.
- In one line: The housing market will weaken over the course of 2026.
- The housing market was solid before the energy price shock, but activity will grind lower in 2026.
- Measures of supply are ticking up, which will put further pressure on prices.
- We look for house price inflation of 1.0% in Q4 2026, down from our previous forecast of 3.0%.
- Unrevised GDP growth of 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4 2025 confirms the pre-Budget hit to activity.
- The saving rate rose to 9.9% in Q4, from 9.1% in Q3, showing consumers can smooth spending in 2026.
- The current account deficit widened in Q4 and will remain weak in 2026 as energy prices jump.
- Healthy credit flows and stable saving patterns suggest confident consumers.
- The activity data will slow in the coming months, but consumers can use savings to smooth spending.
- Business lending was rising, on the back of lower policy uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts.
- Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
- But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
- The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
- The PMI points to GDP growth easing in Q1, but still broadly in line with rate-setters’ expectations.
- We stick with our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q1, but with downside risks to that call.
- The MPC will wait for more data before making judgements on how the war is impacting the economy.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- In one line: Slowing pay growth keeps the bar to a hike high, but payrolls show the labour market rebounding ahead of the Iran war.
- In one line: MPC surprises market hawkishly, guidance symmetric but more open to hikes than expected.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit sentiment in the manufacturing sector hard.
- In one line:The public finances will be hit hard if high energy prices persist for long.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
