UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Datanotes
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
- In one line: Wet weather weighs on the Construction PMI in February, and sentiment will continue to remain weak in 2026.
- In one line: Car registrations will continue to rise over the course of 2026.
- In one line:Sales growth jumps, hiring plans improve, and wage growth remains stubbornly strong.
- In one line: Growth rebounded in the new year and price pressures remain strong
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI suggests activity is stable, but surging energy prices will hit sentiment.
- In one line: Strong credit flows and falling saving suggest the UK was rebounding strongly in the New Year.
- In one line: The housing market remains stable according to Nationwide, but activity will strengthen over 2026.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
- Industrial production likely rebounded in January, since manufacturing activity continues to recover.
- Surging A&E attendances indicate upside risk to services output from healthcare activity.
- Output in the construction sector will fall again, as the wet weather dampened activity.
- We now expect a rate cut in April, compared to March previously, after another surge in commodity prices.
- Our forecast today is a holding position as we wait to see where gas prices settle at the end of the week.
- The Chancellor boosted her headroom in the Spring Statement, but bigger challenges await in the autumn.
- Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
- The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
- But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.
- House prices rose by a respectable 2.4% on average in Q4, down only slightly from 2.5% in Q4 2026.
- 2025’s stamp-duty hike and mansion tax are weighing on house prices in London and the South East.
- A sharp drop in household inflation expectations in February seals a March rate cut.
- The latest public finances data will support the Chancellor by showing borrowing below profile.
- But the headline figures flatter the overall picture, where spending pressures are higher.
- We expect the OBR to revise down borrowing in 2030/31 slightly, though policy U-turns are mounting.
- A surge in retail sales growth in January points to upside risk to GDP growth in Q1.
- The PMI suggests that business sentiment is also improving as policy uncertainty wanes.
- But the dismal weather so far this year means we hold fire on raising our Q1 growth forecast from 0.3%.
- A jump in payroll-measured productivity has coincided with the proliferation of AI tools.
- Studies link AI exposure and weak hiring in some sectors, but the impact is tiny at a macro level, so far.
- The impact of AI will build over time, but the general equilibrium effects on the economy are hard to call.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
- In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
