UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Chartbook
BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
