UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- January’s composite PMI data point to GDP rising at a near-trend 0.2% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1.
- S&P’s survey also points to 0.2% q/q growth in employ- ment, which would stop unemployment rising further.
- Producer output prices remain flat despite shipping disruptions, but services inflation is fading only slowly.
UK
- The official house price index will fall further in Q1, in response to last year's rise in mortgage rates...
- ...But mortgage payment affordability will improve rap- idly this year, as rates come down and incomes rise.
- The timeliest indicators of house purchase demand have rebounded; prices will return to their peak by year-end.
UK
- We expect sterling to continue to appreciate gradually against the dollar, reaching $1.30 by the end of the year.
- Markets’ expectations for Fed rate cuts look well founded, but the MPC will be more cautious than investors expect.
- Public opinion would have to shift dramatically for the election to lead to a sterling-damaging hung parliament.
UK
- Growth in money supply remained weak in November, largely due to subdued mortgage lending...
- ...But a recovery should take hold from Q2, as buyer de- mand picks up in response to the falling mortgage rates.
- Consumers probably continue to borrow more to fund consumption, as borrowing costs start to come down.
UK
- Business investment as a share of GDP still was in line with its 2015-to-19 average, despite falling in Q3.
- We think it will fall further in the first half of the year, as firms continue to grapple with high borrow ng costs...
- ...But strong balance sheets and recovering sentiment should prevent a sharp decline.
UK
- The composite PMI topped 50 in November for the first time since July and is likely understating GDP growth.
- S&P’s bespoke seasonal adjustment process is depressing the PMI; public-sector output will rise in Q4.
- S&P’s survey also signals slowing service price rises and flat employment; a May Bank Rate cut is still in play.
UK
- The official house price index in September was only 0.7% below its November 2022 peak...
- ...but the first estimate usually is revised down by 1%, and Q3’s rise in mortgage rates hasn’t impacted the data yet.
- The better outlook for mortgage rates, however, hints prices in Q1 will stabilise at 5%, not 6%, below their peak.
UK
- On balance, survey indicators suggest payroll employee numbers merely held steady in October...
- ...This implies the claimant count rose, given further workforce growth, but it is an imperfect unemployment gauge.
- Month-to-month growth in average weekly wages likely slowed in September, despite public-sector pay deals.
UK
- CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
- ...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
- Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.
UK
