UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
- We look for a 1.0% month-to-month rise in retail sales in July as surveys signal healthy consumer spending.
- Households appear confident and comfortable with their assets, so the saving rate should fall in H2.
- Rising inflation, falling jobs and fiscal worries remain risks to the outlook.
- Payrolls declined by 8K month-to-month in July, the smallest drop in six months.
- Redundancies fell and vacancies look to have stabilised; the worst of the job slowdown is over.
- Private-sector pay growth was below the MPC’s call in Q2, but it remains too high to cut rates rapidly.
- Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
- ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
- We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
