UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
- The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
- We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
