UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
- In one line: The housing market is cooling now but activity will pick up in H2.
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
- Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
- Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
- Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.
- Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
- The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
- Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.
- Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
- Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
- The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
- We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
- We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
- We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
- But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
- Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.
