UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Multiplying ONS errors increasingly hint at systemic problems that could affect more data series.
- The saving rate has disconnected from its usual economic drivers, so it may have been mis-estimated.
- Household income based on unreliable official job data is particularly subject to risk of error, we think.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
- Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
- The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
- We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
- But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
- Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect zero GDP growth in February as services and construction offset falling industrial output.
- Risks to our call are broadly balanced, though manufacturing is subject to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- We continue to forecast 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
- Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
- Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...
- …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
- A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
- The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
