UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but watch for chunky revisions in the final release.
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
- Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
- The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
- We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
- The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
- The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
- Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
- An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
- …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.
