UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
- But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
- We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.
- Some frozen government-set prices, a utility-bill cut and the early Easter combined to lower inflation.
- We think that most—not all—of the downside inflation surprise in April, such as in airfares, will unwind.
- Weaker underlying inflation lowers the chance of a rate hike, but surveys still point to a sharp acceleration.
- The sharp fall in payrolls in April looks misleading, as they are far weaker than surveys suggested.
- Payroll revisions remain predictable, and April should eventually show jobs little changed month-to-month.
- Falling jobs and dovish pay growth will keep the MPC on hold in June, but we expect wage gains to improve.
- Betting markets give Sir Keir Starmer only 15% chance of being Prime Minister after September.
- So, rates markets have likely mostly priced in the impact of the Labour Party leadership changing.
- We estimate 10-year yields would rise another 7-to-10bp should Mr. Burnham win a leadership contest.
- In one line: Early Easter exaggerates the fall, but it was a weak reading nonetheless.
- In one line: Noise exaggerates growth, but GDP was nonetheless solid heading into the Iran War.
- In one line: Few signs of a spillover from higher energy prices into core import costs, yet.
- In one line: House price inflation to remain weak in 2026 as higher interest costs bite.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits permanent hiring, but vacancies improve, suggesting the job market is holding up.
- Some of March’s strong GDP gain was front-running ahead of supply-chain disruption...
- …But our measure of underlying activity grew solidly too, suggesting genuine strength.
- We now expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2, up from 0.1% previously.
- We now expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% in April from 3.3% in March, in line with the MPC’s call.
- But our forecast is close to rounding down to 2.9%, and uncertainty is high, with many price resets.
- Smaller water-bill and vehicle-tax hikes than in 2025 will slow inflation, but rents will rise by more this April.
- We expect CPI inflation to slow to 2.9% in April from 3.3% in March.
- Utility prices fell 6.6% in April, and a range of government-set prices will rise less than a year earlier.
- Our CPI inflation call is 0.1pp lower than rate-setters expect, but we match their services inflation forecast.
- MPC members argued that tighter financial conditions were doing the job of rate hikes for now.
- The Market Participants Survey in particular appears to have been influential in Governor Bailey’s view.
- But the MaPS suggests the MPC will have to hike this summer to maintain financial conditions.
- In one line: Not as good as it looks, but the PMIs still say the MPC should worry more about inflation than growth.
- In one line:The Chancellor will need to borrow more than expected in the upcoming fiscal year.
- In one line: Higher inflation means consumers’ confidence will remain weak in 2026.
- In one line:Tentative signs that consumers are willing to run down their high saving rate to support consumption.
- The MPC’s decision to hold rates, and the vote split, were in line with consensus.
- The MPC’s guidance suggests to us a couple of rate hikes this year, fewer than the market had priced.
- Mr. Bailey’s communication in the press conference jarred with MPC scenarios, so we detail our take.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- In one line: Underlying inflation accelerating tips the balance towards rate hikes if oil prices stay high, or limits the room for cuts if oil prices fall back.
