UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
- The strongest September car sales in five years indicate signs of life in the consumer.
- September’s REC survey points to easing payroll falls, so we look for an 8K month-to-month drop.
- We doubt graduate recruitment will drag much on payroll growth in September.
- September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
- GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
- Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.
BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
