UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
- Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
- Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
- Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
- The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher deficit spending to fund increased security commitments will weigh on gilts.
- We raise our gilt yield forecasts to reflect our call that Bank Rate will settle at 4%, up from 3.75% previously.
- Fewer interest rate cuts relative to major peers will support sterling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation should hold at 3.0% in January, 0.2pp higher than rate-setters expect.
- We expect hotel and phone app prices to push up services inflation to 5.1%, matching the MPC’s call.
- February is the ‘calm before the storm’ of price resets; inflation will rise to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Bank of England is far too sanguine about elevated long-term consumer inflation expectations.
- Five-year-ahead expectations hit a new high in Q1, adjusting for a methodology break in the BoE survey.
- Public satisfaction in the BoE’s handling of inflation remains depressed, hindering its credibility.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
- We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
- Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
- Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
- We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
- The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
- But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
- Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation surged as airfares unwound erratic weakness, school fees rose and food prices jumped.
- Rising core goods inflation is offsetting weaker-than-expected services inflation.
- The MPC will have to be careful as inflation heads to 3.7% in September; 4% is not out of the question.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Labour market data indicate little sign of a sharp job downturn, with payrolls stalling rather than collapsing.
- Vacancies stabilised in January, and jobless claims have dropped since the Budget.
- Pay growth is running at about twice the rate needed to return inflation sustainably to target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
