Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 Sept 2021 Brazil's Recovery Continues; Argentina's Political Mess Worsens

  • Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon.
  • The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles and the economy deteriorates.
  • Inflation is high, and sluggish demand, political risk and policy heterodoxy will limit the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Sept 2021 Headline Inflation Slows in Mexico, thanks to AMLO, Core is Climbing

  • Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
  • Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
  • The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2021 A Modest Rebound as Political Risk Eases, but Tensions are Brewing

  • Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
  • Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
  • Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 July 2021 Temporary Downside Pressures; Q3 will be better

Brazilian Real — Starting Q3 on a weak footing

Colombian Peso — Investment grade days are over

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off is easing

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 July 2021 Argentina's Recovery is Stalling, and the Second Half Looks Tough

Argentina's April economic activity report unsurprisingly showed that activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules—restrictions have been tightened significantly since late May—despite improving external conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2021 LatAm FX Markets Under Strain as Global Conditions Turn Challenging

LatAm FX markets have been under severe strain over the last week, following slightly hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggesting policymakers are now ready to talk about tapering.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2021 Peru's Recovery Stalled in April; Argentina's Inflation Nightmare

Economic and political uncertainty continues in Peru. It took about two weeks to count all the presidential votes, but Pedro Castillo, who led by only 0.25pp over Keiko Fujimori, hasn't been declared the winner yet.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 June 2021 Political Risk Continues to Hurt Andean Currencies

Colombian Peso — Social tensions persist 

Peruvian New Sol — Neck-and-neck election 

Chilean Peso — A modest drop as copper prices stabilise

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 May 2021 Divergent Trends Driven by Politics and Better Economic Prospects

Brazilian Real — Better domestic and external conditions

Colombian Peso — Political and social crisis

Peruvian New Sol — Populist fears trash the PEN

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 May 2021 The Bumpy Upturn in the Andes Continues, but Politics is a Big Threat

Recent data confirmed that Chile's economic recovery continued in Q1, but momentum slowed on a sequential basis in March, due to the worsening of the pandemic and the fading boost from temporary factors.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 April 2021 Peruvians will Head to the Polls, Volatility will Persist for Some Time

With less than two weeks before the first round ofPeru's presidential election, polls released in the past few weeks show that the race is still wide open.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Mar 2021 Argentina's Recovery Continues, but Debt Maturities are Now the Key

Argentina's Q4 GDP report released last week underscored that the gradual economic rebound consolidated during the second half of last year. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Mar 2021 Rates Set to Rise in Brazil, Argentina's Inflation Remains High

The prospect of a bold start to the tightening cycle this week in Brazil strengthened significantly yesterday,

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Mar 2021 High political risk is putting some currencies under strain

Brazilian Real — High political risk is the key driver

Mexican Peso — Hit by AMLO's populist moves

Chilean Peso — The rising star in EM

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Feb 2021 Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment Likely will Improve this Year

Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment downtrend hasn't reached the bottom yet, given the sharp deterioration
of the pandemic in recent months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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