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Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation.
CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices.
Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat.
June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.
Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.
Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.
Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.
AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.
The latest polls confirm that former President Lula will win in Brazil, but anything can still happen.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s strategy—mostly boosting aid to households—is giving him modest support.
We expect the near-term momentum to continue to favour the opposition, but the economy will decide.
High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3.
The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated.
The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1.
High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.
It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.
The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.
Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.
The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.
Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.
Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.
Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.
Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support...
...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging.
Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat.
Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.
Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.
The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.
Gustavo Petro, the left-wing leader, clearly won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election.
He will face the former city mayor Rodolfo Hernández, who received the support of the defeated Fico.
This gives him the upper hand in next month's run- off, but even if Petro wins, Colombia will do well.
Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.
High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.
The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.
Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.
Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.
Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.
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