Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.


2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Economy Struggles Ahead of the Constitutional Referendum

  • Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
  • ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
  • Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Inflation is Falling Rapidly, but it is Sticky in Mexico

Benign global conditions, including easing supply constraints will help to push down LatAm inflation. 

CPI inflation is dropping rapidly in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices. 

Core inflation remains sticky in Mexico; we expect a downtrend soon, but wage pressures are a threat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 July 2022 Manufacturing Remains a Key Support for GDP Growth in Mexico

Industrial production in Mexico remains resilient, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing activity.

Activity in mining and construction continues to lag; deteriorating domestic conditions remain a drag.

AMLO is starting to bet on nearshoring, but he will have to stop clashing with businesses first.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 July 2022 Brazil's Presidential Election is Up for Grabs, Despite Lula Leading

The latest polls confirm that former President Lula will win in Brazil, but anything can still happen.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s strategy—mostly boosting aid to households—is giving him modest support.

We expect the near-term momentum to continue to favour the opposition, but the economy will decide.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 July 2022 Inflation in the Andes Remains High and Sticky

High and sticky inflation in the Andes is increasing the pressure on policymakers to act beyond Q3. 

The steady fall in currencies, due mainly to the hawkish Fed, is making things even more complicated. 

The strategy will be to act boldly now and bring the economy to a standstill, to allow rapid easing in H1. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 July 2022 The Party is Likely Over in Chile, and the Hangover will be Ugly and Long

High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.

It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.

The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 June 2022 Mexico's Trade Deficit Sank Further, due Mainly to High Oil Prices

Mexico’s deficit in May remained very large by past standards, due mainly to high energy prices.

The value of imports likely will continue to rise in Q3, but weaker domestic demand will be a drag later on.

Labour market conditions deteriorated, at the margin, in May, but enough to make Banxico uneasy.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 June 2022 Brazil's Solid Recovery Continues, Despite Diverse Shocks

Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support... 

...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging. 

Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 June 2022 April's Brisk Retail Numbers in Chile Mask a Falling Underlying Trend

Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.

Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.

The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 May 2022 Anti-Establishment Populism Won in Colombia's Presidential Vote

Gustavo Petro, the left-wing leader, clearly won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election.

He will face the former city mayor Rodolfo Hernández, who received the support of the defeated Fico.

This gives him the upper hand in next month's run- off, but even if Petro wins, Colombia will do well.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 May 2022 The Economic Outlook for Argentina and Peru is Deteriorating Rapidly

Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.

The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 May 2022 Banxico Hikes by Another 50bp, but Rates are Nowhere Near the Peak Yet

Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.

Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.

Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence