Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor August's CPI Data in Brazil Are Good Enough to Prevent More Rate Hikes

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
  • ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
  • Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Headline Inflation in Mexico will Slow Gradually in H2, Despite July's Uptick

Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening... 

...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing. 

Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 June 2022 Inflation Pressures Ease a Bit in Brazil; Mexico's IGAE Rebounds

Inflation is finally starting to show signs of softening in Brazil, but upward pressures in the core persist. 

Core CPI inflation likely will peak soon, allowing the COPOM to stop the tightening cycle in August. 

Mexico’s economic activity gathered speed in April, but the current pace is unsustainable. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 June 2022 The COPOM will Hike Further in Q3, to Rule on Inflation Expectations

The COPOM eased the pace of tightening, but has left the door open to further hikes in Q3.

The deteriorating external inflation outlook has been forcing the Board to tweak its plans since May.

We now expect a final rate hike in August to anchor inflation expectations, if external conditions improve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 June 2022 Headline Inflation is Peaking in BraMex

Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, as some shocks ease, but conditions are far from benign. 

Headline inflation has eased at the margin in Mexico, but core pressures remain sticky. 

The COPOM will hike rates this week, but then hold in H2; Banxico likely will speed up its tightening. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 June 2022 Inflation Continues to be a Pain to Policymakers, but It is Peaking

Inflation slows at the margin in BraMex, but underlying pressures remain high and upside risks abound.

Chile’s inflation continues to head north, driven by a resilient domestic demand and external shocks.

The BCCh will continue to hike rates in Q3, but at a slower pace; inflation will start to edge down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 June 2022 Brazilian Industry Recovery Likely Continued in Q2, Despite Key Drags

Brazil’s industrial output continues to gather speed, in line with improving survey data.

Our baseline is that production will continue to advance in Q2, but only trivially, as key drags bite.

Price pressures remain elevated in Peru, forcing the BCRP to hike rates boldly tomorrow.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 June 2022 Brazil's Solid Recovery Continues, Despite Diverse Shocks

Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support... 

...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging. 

Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 June 2022 April's Brisk Retail Numbers in Chile Mask a Falling Underlying Trend

Retail sales in Chile remained resilient in April, but the trend is falling; fundamentals are deteriorating.

Manufacturing improved at the margin in early Q2, but mining activity remains a key drag.

The job market recovery continued in April, but conditions are worsening, pointing to a tough H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 May 2022 Orthodox and Unconventional Measures to Fight Sticky Inflation

Inflation remains a headache for policymakers, but conditions likely will improve at the margin in Q3.

Food inflation remains a key upside risk, forcing governments to implement unconventional steps.

This will probably help in the near term, but will slow the disinflation trend next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 May 2022 The Economic Outlook for Argentina and Peru is Deteriorating Rapidly

Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.

The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 May 2022 The BCCh Hiked Rates Boldly as Inflation Accelerated Sharply in April

The BCCh delivers a bigger-than-expected rate hike, and leaves the door open for further tightening.

Inflation rose in April faster than policymakers expected, keeping up the pressure for more rate hikes.

The CLP sell-off, high commodity prices, and the lagged effect of policy stimulus remain a nightmare.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 May 2022 The COPOM Hints a Modest Rate Hike in June, but Uncertainty is High

The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...

...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.

Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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