12 Jan 2023 LatAm Monitor Resilient, Despite Increased Political Noise

• Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
• Mexico — A solid start to the year
• Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor The Economic Payback Continues to Unfold in Chile; When will it Stop?

• Chile’s recovery continued to stall in Q3, due mostly to plunging domestic demand.
• Conditions will remain difficult in the near term, forcing the BCCh to cut rates early next year.
• The current account deficit has ballooned, but a correction is now underway; the risk will ease soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Nov 2022 LatAm Monitor The Mexican Economy Defied Many Drags in Q3, but Pain is Coming

• Mexico’s economy was resilient in Q3, despite weakening sectoral and survey data.
• But the good news won’t last; still-high inflation and tighter financial conditions remain threats.
• Most importantly, a weakening U.S. economy, hitting manufacturing and remittances, is a huge risk.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico is now Heading South, but Banxico won't Back Down

• Headline inflation in Mexico probably peaked in Q3, and we expect it to edge down in the near term.
• Core inflation remains sticky, but not for long, as the economic recovery stutters and shocks finally fade.
• Brazil’s external accounts remain resilient, providing a cushion against uncertainty elsewhere.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Politics Remains Centre Stage in a Complicated External Backdrop

The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.

The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.

Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Slowing GDP Growth in the Andes will Make Central Banks Uneasy

• Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
• Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
• Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America