Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

recession

13 Oct 2022 LatAm Equity Update Stock Markets Hurt as Global Recession Fears Grow

  • Brazil — Hurt by global recession fears
  • Colombia — Petro’s tweets puncture the stock market
  • Chile — Global woes add to political uncertainty

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Recession will Continue in Q4, Despite an Upbeat IMACEC

  • Chile’s economic recovery continues to go into reverse, despite August’s upbeat IMACEC.
  • The recession will continue in Q4, giving further arguments to the BCCh for keeping rates on hold.
  • The BanRep minutes reinforced its less-hawkish bias, but now is not the time for inflation complacency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Chile Likely will Ease in Q4, as the Recession Bites

Inflation is rising rapidly in Chile, led by rises in food and fuel prices, but the outlook is improving.

Favourable base effects, and flattening commodity prices, likely will help to bring inflation down soon.

A looming recession in H2 will also help to push prices down, allowing the BCCh to stop hiking rates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 July 2022 Latin America Monitor High Inflation is Denting the Upturn in Mexico and Argentina

The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.

Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...

...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Economy Shows Signs of Fatigue

Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.

Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.

Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 July 2022 Colombia's Near-Term Outlook Has Worsened, the COP Feels the Pain

Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.

Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.

A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2022 Brazil's Retail Sector is Resilient, and the Outlook has Improved

Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.

Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.

The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 July 2022 LatAm CBs Likely will Continue to Hike in Q3, but Urgency will Ease

Brazil’s inflation in June was in line with expectations; the downtrend will resume in Q3, but risks remain. 

The inflation picture is still terrible in Chile, but we see a marginal improvement in the sequential data. 

Peru’s BCRP steady march at 50bp per month will continue in the near term as inflation is a headache. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 July 2022 Currencies Hit by Global Recession Fears

Mexican Peso — Global growth worries prevail

Colombian Peso — Down despite a moderated Petro

Chilean Peso — Hit by global recession fears

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 May 2022 The Economic Outlook for Argentina and Peru is Deteriorating Rapidly

Argentina’s economic recovery stalled in March, and conditions are deteriorating rapidly.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy in to a technical recession in Q2.

The Peruvian economy struggled in March, but it dodge a recession, thanks to a solid start to Q1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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