Brazil’s real GDP has risen for a fifth consecutive quarter; output is about 5% above pre-Covid level...
...But the balance of risks for 2023 is to the downside, due mainly to increased fiscal threats.
Policy uncertainty could keep interest rates high for even longer, and the global economy won’t help.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
- ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
- Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
- Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
- Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy started Q3 on a weak footing, as high inflation weighs on consumers’ spending.
- Peru’s economic recovery stalled in July and leading indicators point to further weakness in the near term.
- Weakening growth momentum will force central banks to stop hiking rates, assuming inflation cedes.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
- ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
- Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
- Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
- Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico likely hit a new multi-decade high in August, but likely conditions will improve soon.
- Inflation pressures in Peru are finally easing; the end of the BRCP’s tightening cycle is around the corner.
- Core inflation remains subdued, and a weakening domestic demand will help to push it lower in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
- The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
- Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
