- In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term, due to high uncertainty.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A resilient labour market in Q4, but we expect a weak H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The fight against high inflation is probably over, rate cuts likely will come soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: No signs of a pivot despite falling inflation and inflation expectations.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political chaos will have a limited effect
- Mexico — A solid start to the year
- Peru — Ignoring once again another political crisis
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s President had a decent first 100 days in office, with the tax reform as a key achievement...
- ...But conflicting signals, between radicalism and orthodoxy, have hurt and will keep investors on alert.
- BanRep is likely to raise the policy interest rate further, owing to persistent price pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Pause signalled; further tightening requires stubbornly high inflation.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector was under pressure in August, but the near-term outlook is positive.
- Improving domestic fundamentals likely will offset the drag from deteriorating external conditions.
- The inflation picture remains ugly in Colombia, with the headline rate still climbing rapidly.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil is decelerating rapidly, thanks mainly to the effect of tax and tighter financial conditions.
- Leading indicators suggest that the downtrend will continue over the coming months...
- ...But upside risks remain, which will prevent the COPOM from cutting rates any time soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM ends the tightening cycle, as inflation is finally cooling, thanks mainly to tax cuts...
- ...But it was a split and hawkish decision, and rate cuts won’t be on the table anytime soon.
- Inflation pressures persist in Mexico, particularly at the core level, but not for much longer.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia's economic activity index confirmed that the recovery stalled in July, due to high inflation.
- Growth momentum will continue to peter out in the very near term; conditions likely will stabilise in Q4.
- The COPOM likely will keep the Selic rate on hold today, and throughout the remainder of the year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic growth was stronger-than-expected in early July, which will disquiet the COPOM...
- ...But still-high inflation and political uncertainty are already weighing on consumers’ spending.
- Argentinians will soon face triple-digit inflation, driven by rising input costs and the ARS sell-off.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The headline rate of CPI inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, thanks to recent tax reductions...
- ...But policymakers remain on alert, as the core rate remains sticky, especially non-administered prices.
- Peru’s central bank slowed the march to 25bp; the end of the tightening cycle is near.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
