Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

private consumption

27 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor July IGAE Showed a Resilient Mexican Economy, but Not for Long

  • Mexico’s economy was resilient at the start of Q3, thanks to improving manufacturing activity...
  • ...But sentiment indicators and survey data suggest that a slowdown will probably emerge soon.
  • Brazil’s eternal accounts remain healthy, despite the recent deterioration on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Activity was Sturdy in H1 in Mexico and Argentina, but Risks Abound

  • Mexico’s GDP likely rose marginally in July, but a modest downtrend will emerge soon.
  • Argentina’s economy remained surprisingly resilient in H1, but the outlook has deteriorated rapidly.
  • Inflation is rebounding, rates will continue to be hiked, and external conditions have worsened. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Services Sector Continues to Fire on all Cylinders

  • Brazil’s services sector continues to fire on all cylinders, despite the squeeze on real incomes.
  • Tax cuts and additional fiscal aid to households suggest that private consumption will remain solid in H2.
  • Consumer confidence continues to rebound in Colombia, despite the COP’s sell-off and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor High Inflation in Mexico and Chile will Test Policymakers' Resolve

  • Inflation in Mexico rose in August, meeting expectations, allowing Banxico to hike by 50bp this month.
  • The inflation picture remains ugly in Chile, but the recession likely will push it down in Q4.
  • The BCCh surprised markets by increasing the main rate by 100bp, but it adopted a neutral bias. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Resilient Economic Activity in Peru, Despite Political Disruption

The Peruvian economy remained resilient in H1, despite elevated political uncertainty.

Domestic demand will slow marginally in H2, due to high inflation and increased interest rates.

External threats also remain significant, but the economy probably will weather the storm.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor June's Retail Sales Figures in Mexico are Raising Red Flags

June’s retail sales numbers suggest that Mexican households are feeling the pain from high inflation.

Still-solid remittances from the U.S. remain the life-line for many, but downside forces are emerging.

Tighter financial conditions is also hitting consum- ers hard, but the picture will improve in Q1 next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Economic Growth Falters in Chile, but Remains Resilient in Peru

Chile’s economy struggled in H1, and it is now practically in a technical recession.

The payback after a solid 2021 continues, and the near-term outlook remains grim.

Peru’s economic activity improved in June, despite rising inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 July 2022 Latin America Monitor Mexico's Massive Trade Deficit is Driven Mostly by Oil

Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.

Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.

Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 July 2022 Brazil's Retail Sector is Resilient, and the Outlook has Improved

Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.

Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.

The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 July 2022 May Industrial Data Confirm that Brazil's Recovery Remains on Track

Output in Brazil’s industrial sector continues to rebound, helping to offset weakness elsewhere. 

Increased fiscal support to families, an improving labour market, and the reopening are key drivers. 

The near-term outlook, however, remains cloudy, due to high inflation and tighter financial conditions. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 June 2022 Banxico Delivers a Record 75bp Rate Hike, and More is in the Pipeline

Banxico delivers a bold 75bp rate hike, and leaves the door wide open for more during the second half.

Inflation continued to rise in Q2, darkening the economic outlook over the next few months.

Banxico will hike more than the Board and AMLO would have allowed under normal conditions.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 June 2022 Retail Activity Remains Sturdy in Brazil, Mexican IP is still Recovering

Brazilian retailers enjoyed a solid start to Q2, but momentum is already easing in some components.

The Mexican industrial sector remains solid, but the outlook has deteriorated, due mainly to high inflation.

The plunge in China’s PMIs and lingering external shocks point to potential trouble ahead.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 June 2022 Brazil's Solid Recovery Continues, Despite Diverse Shocks

Brazil’s recovery continued in Q1, due mostly to increased mobility and further fiscal support... 

...But the near-term outlook for households’ real disposable income is challenging. 

Increased spending on services, and high commodity prices, will allow the economy to stay afloat. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 May 2022 LatAm will Rein-in Stubbornly High Inflation in the Second Half

Food has been a key contributor to the inflation rebound in Q2, but pressures likely will ease in H2.

Core prices also will drive inflation down, as economies lose momentum.

Further monetary tightening and unconventional measures will add to the squeeze on inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 May 2022 Chile's GDP Contracted Sharply in Q1, Payback After a Solid 2021

Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.

The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...

...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending in Brazil Will Slow Soon

Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...

...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.

The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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