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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

polls

21 Oct 2022 LatAm Monitor Politics Remains Centre Stage in a Complicated External Backdrop

The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.

The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.

Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Can President Bolsonaro Close the Gap on Lula in Coming Weeks

  • Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
  • The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile Resoundingly Rejects Mr. Boric's New Constitution; Now What?

  • Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
  • Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
  • BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

2 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Economy Enjoyed a Solid First Half of the Year; will it Last

  • The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
  • The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
  • Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile's Economy Struggles Ahead of the Constitutional Referendum

  • Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
  • ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
  • Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Uncertainty Keeps Pressure

Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just

Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite

Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

27 July 2022 Latin America Monitor A Disinflation Trend Emerges in Brazil, Thanks to Recent Measures

 A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...

...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.

The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2022 Latin America Political Update Increased Tensions as the Recovery Falters

Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election

Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead

Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2022 Peru's Economic Activity Rebounded in May, but it Likely will Stall Soon

Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...

...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.

Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 July 2022 Brazil's Presidential Election is Up for Grabs, Despite Lula Leading

The latest polls confirm that former President Lula will win in Brazil, but anything can still happen.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s strategy—mostly boosting aid to households—is giving him modest support.

We expect the near-term momentum to continue to favour the opposition, but the economy will decide.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 July 2022 The Party is Likely Over in Chile, and the Hangover will be Ugly and Long

High inflation, political noise, and worsening external conditions are hitting Chile’s economic prospects.

It is no surprise that President Boric’s approval is on the floor; pessimism and dissatisfaction are rising.

The labour market remains solid, though, but survey data are consistent with employment growth slowing.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 June 2022 Left-Wing Presidents Takes Over in the Region

Colombia — Petro becomes the first leftist president

Mexico — AMLO’s party seems unstoppable

Chile — A tax reform proposal will be presented

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 June 2022 Peru's BCRP to Hike Further in Q3, Colombia's Election is Too Call

Peru’s BCRP will continue to hike in the near term, as core inflation will remain too high for comfort.

The COPOM likely will hike the rate to 13.25% tomorrow, where it should stay through the rest of the year.

Technical tie between Petro and Hernández just days before the presidential elections in Colombia.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 May 2022 Is Colombia on the Verge of a Remarkable Political Shift

Next Sunday's presidential election in Colombia is wide open, though Mr. Petro is leading the race.

He will make it into the second round, but we still believe that Mr. Fico will win on a photo finish.

Uncertainty is high, the upturn of Mr. Hernández in the polls complicates Mr. Fico's path to the runoff.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 May 2022 Political Risk on the Rise as Economic Conditions Worsen

Brazil — Lula’s lead continues to narrow

Colombia — Gustavo Petro still in the lead

Chile — The draft of the New Constitution is out

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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