The runoff polls continue to show Lula in the pole position, but anything can happen in a week.
The shambolic start to Gustavo Petro’s presidency will keep the COP and external accounts under strain.
Exports remain solid, but import contraction should help stabilize the trade deficit, albeit at a wide level.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
- Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
- Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
- Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
- The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
- Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
- BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The full reopening of the economy and further fiscal support have allowed Brazil to enjoy a solid H1.
- The recovery of the job market has also helped, off-setting the drag from high inflation and rates.
- Chile’s economy is in trouble and leading indicators tell a story of depressed conditions in H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s labour market is under renewed strain and survey data point to a challenging H2...
- ...High inflation, tighter financial conditions, increased interest rates, and elevated political risks are drags.
- Chileans will vote on Sunday on a new constitution, but uncertainty will persist regardless.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
